Consumer confidence ticked up over the last two-week period, rising from 49.1 to 49.8, according to the most recent data from the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This 0.7 point rise comes after lackluster reports for retail spending through April. After starting the year with a 4.5 point slide from a high of 53.3 to a low of 48.8, the ESI seems to have stabilized, resting between 48.8 and 50 points for seven most recent two-week periods.
Consumer confidence fell 0.8 points from 49.9 to 49.1 over the last two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This reading follows the strongest two-week period of the year where sentiment gained 1.1 points. Looking at recent economic data, this is the first release following the announcement of weak, 0.2 percentage growth through the first quarter of 2015. Looking ahead to jobs day on Friday, confidence in the labor market has been steadily declining since the beginning of the year.
Consumer confidence rose over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While consumer confidence fell throughout most of the beginning of this year, it is still currently 3.9 points higher than it was at this time last year. Furthermore, it has been relatively steady for the past two months.
Over the last two weeks, consumer confidence dropped 1.2 points from 50 to 48.8, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index. This reading is the index’s lowest level in 2015, and reverses the sharp rise the index saw during the 2014 holiday season. This drop ties the second largest two-week drop this year, and comes on the heels of a modest 0.4 point gain in the previous two-week period. The drop coincides with a weak showing in jobs numbers last Friday, with first readings suggesting only 126,000 jobs were added in March.
Heading into spring, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards over the past two weeks. The Index rose 0.4 points from 49.6 to 50. This increase comes on the heels of a two-month drop from 53.3 to 49.6 and was driven by increases in confidence in making a major purchase and in personal finances. At 50, respondents were equally likely to say they were more confident than less, net those who said stay the same.
The decline in the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) slowed after three consecutive drops, falling only 0.3 points from 49.9 to 49.6. In total, economic sentiment has dropped 3.1 points from the start of the year. Even with this sharp decline at the start of the year, the ESI remains well above last year’s average. The most recent drop follows a similar pattern over the same period last year in which we saw a steep decline at the beginning of the year that then leveled off and saw a strong gain at the end of March.
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped for the third straight two-week period, falling 1.3 points from 51.2 to 49.9. This recent dip erases much of the gains experienced in December and is echoed by a similar drop in the Michigan survey. At the same time, this dip comes off of the heels of a strong rally in the Fall of 2014, which brought the index to highs above the 50-point threshold. At 49.9, the ESI is still more than seven points higher than its level from a year ago and well over last year’s average. Further, while similar to the dip experienced in January of last year, the most recent drop is 0.6 points less than that of a year ago.
For the second straight two-week period, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dipped slightly from 52.8 to 51.2, a drop of 1.6 points. This January slide parallels a similar drop last year when the ESI fell from 44.5 to 42.6, suggesting a possible seasonal fluctuation. Additionally, the boost from falling oil prices may have leveled off. Yet overall, this slide comes after one of the strongest periods on record. At 51.2, the ESI is higher than the yearly average from 2014 and is nearly nine points above its level this time last year.
Following a sharp climb throughout December and the beginning of January, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dipped slightly from 53.3 to 52.8 over the last two weeks. The dip occurred on the heels of a strong growth period when the ESI jumped from 47.6 to 53.3. This time last year saw declines suggesting potential seasonal effects, but overall the index remains elevated. Of note, as we head into the Federal Reserve’s policy meetings today and tomorrow, confidence in finding a new job declined for the second reading in a row.
Consumer confidence continued its rise, albeit at a slower pace than December, with the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increasing 0.4 points to 53.3. In particular, consumer confidence in making a major purchase increased sharply over the past two weeks on the heels of continued positive reports on the American economy. At 53.3, the ESI is now 9.6 points above its level from a year ago and 5.8 points above its level at the beginning of the fourth quarter.