After 2016 Summer Peak, Consumer Confidence Falls By More Than One Point

Consumer confidence fell by 1.1 points to 46.8 over the last two weeks, according to the latest reading of the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The drop negated half of the gains from last report’s spike, which brought the ESI to its highest level since March 8. All five individual components of the index fell, but confidence in the U.S. economy fell most sharply with a 2.3 point drop. Notably, the three-day rolling average shows that the ESI’s drop was driven primarily by a sharp fall in consumer confidence over the past three days.

Despite the 1.1 point decrease, the ESI remained above its average over the last 3 months of 46.66 and is essentially equal to the 2016 average. As stated above, consumer confidence in the U.S. economy dropped the most, but confidence in making a major purchase also fell by more than one point, from 49.4 to 48. Confidence in personal finances, the labor market, and the housing market decreased although the losses were less than one point at 0.9, 0.8, and 0.4 respectively. All five indicators remained above their June summer lows.

After starting at 47.5 at the end of July, the ESI three-day rolling average fell 3.1 points to 44.4, a two week low, by August 9. However, the drop came only in the last 3 days when the three-day rolling average fell nearly four points.

The next release of the ESI will be August 23.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.