Consumer Confidence Highly Volatile After Election

Consumer confidence increased 1.5 points during the past two weeks to 48.4, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). However, the index’s three-day rolling average reveals a tumultuous reading for the ESI, as the average rose and fell dramatically in the days surrounding the United States election. The five indicators mostly mirrored the ESI’s increase, with consumer confidence in making a major purchase being the sole indicator to decline, falling 2.3 points to 43.8.

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During the last two weeks, the three-day rolling average moved significantly as the events of the U.S. election played out. In the days surrounding the election on Tuesday, November 8, the ESI’s rolling average increased, reaching a peak of 51.2 in the three days leading up to the election. Following its peak, the ESI rolling average plummeted nearly 6.0 points to 45.4 by Saturday, November 12, just four days after the election. The average regained some of its losses by the end of the period, increasing to 49.4 – 4.0 points above its trough and 1.4 points above its starting point – on Tuesday, November 15.

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While the two-week average of confidence in making a major purchase fell, consumer confidence in the other four indicators rose, significantly in some cases. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy rose the most, jumping 4.3 points to 48.4, continuing a strong upward trend from the previous two months. Economic sentiment toward the labor market increased 3.8 points to 39.5, while sentiment toward personal finances increased 1.2 points to 61.8. Economic sentiment toward the housing market increased only slightly, rising 0.5 points to 48.6, marginally above its 12-month low of 48.1 on the November 1 reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be November 29.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.