After the last reading on June 14 saw the ESI reach its lowest point since September 9, 2014, consumer confidence began to recover during the current reading before falling sharply amidst a global market decline resulting from the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union. In the end, economic sentiment among consumers remained unchanged since the last reading, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), with the index holding steady at 45.9 points.
The ESI’s three-day rolling average provided the most insight into the impact of the U.K.’s “Brexit” vote on consumer confidence. The moving average hovered between 46.9 and 48.9 during the first half of the reading, before dropping to 45.9 on June 21, two days before the U.K.’s vote. In the aftermath of the U.K.’s vote and it’s immediate impact on U.S. markets on Friday, including a 3.4 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, consumer confidence dropped sharply to 44.8 on Saturday, June 25. Consumer confidence reached its trough of 42.4 on Sunday, June 26. After Sunday, the rolling average ticked up slightly, ending the reading at 43.1.
While a majority of the ESI’s five sentiment indicators increased during the current reading, with confidence in the labor market, the broader U.S. economy, and the housing market all on the rise, the decline in personal finances was enough to keep the overall ESI unchanged. Sentiment regarding the housing market increased the most, up 1.1 points to 54.3. Close behind were increases in confidence in the U.S. economy and the labor market; sentiment regarding the U.S. economy rose 0.6 points to 37.1, while confidence in labor market rose from 34.1 to 34.6. Confidence in making a major purchase remained flat at 46.5, while consumer confidence in personal finances was the only indicator to decline, dropping 2.6 points to 56.7.
The next release of the ESI will be July 12.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.