Over the last two weeks, economic sentiment rebounded sharply after a month-long period of stagnation, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The 2.1 point increase to 47.9 marks the first increase in the ESI since the May 31 reading, and puts the ESI at its highest level since March 8. The ESI’s rise comes after three straight readings in which the index either tied or set a new low point for 2016, and the jump to 47.9 brings the 2016 average up to 46.99.
The ESI’s rise was propelled by increases in each of the five individual indicators. Consumer confidence in the broader US economy led the way with a 4.6 point increase to 40.3. Confidence in the labor market also experienced a multiple point jump, increasing from 33.6 to 37.0. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase, the housing market, and personal finances all increased as well, rising 1.1, 1.0, and 0.6, respectively. Of note, the two indicators in which consumers are least confident — the labor market and the broader US economy — experienced the largest increases during the reading. Once again, consumers were most confident in their personal finances and least confident in the labor market.
The three-day rolling average finished the reading on Tuesday, July 26, at 49.2, 5.0 points higher than it’s starting point — and also lowest point — of 44.2 on Wednesday, July 13. The moving average reached it’s peak of 49.7 on Sunday, July 24, and trended upward, on balance, throughout the second week of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be August 9.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.