Consumer Confidence Rebounds Slightly In Last Reading Before 2016 Election

Economic sentiment among consumers rebounded slightly over the past two weeks, rising 0.2 points to 46.9, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Despite declining confidence in the labor market, the housing market, and making a major purchase, the index achieved modest gains thanks to increasing confidence in the broader U.S. economy and personal finances. Heading into the 2016 election, consumer confidence remains marginally below its 12-month average of 47.1.

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Consumer confidence in personal finances increased dramatically, correcting the last reading’s decline, rising 5.2 points to 60.6. This is the indicator’s highest level since January 2016. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy also increased, rising for the fifth consecutive reading to 44.1. Economic sentiment toward the labor market, the housing market, and making a major purchase declined by more than 1.0 point across all three indicators. Consumer confidence in the housing market continued to fall, declining by 1.7 points to 48.1, its lowest level in more than 12 months. Confidence in making a major purchase fell 1.8 points to 46.1, while confidence in the labor market fell 1.2 points to 35.7.

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During the two-week period, the index’s three-day rolling average increased 1.6 points, from 46.2 on Wednesday, October 19, to 47.8 on Tuesday, November 1. Despite falling to 45.2 on Tuesday, October 25, the ESI quickly recovered in the following days, rising to its peak of 48.5 on Monday, October 31. The ESI ended the reading with a slight declining, finishing at 47.8.

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The next release of the ESI will be November 15.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.