Consumer confidence rose sharply to 47.5 over the past two weeks, according to the latest data from the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While still below its level from a year ago, consumer confidence has been more stable in 2014 than in 2013, and the recent increase brings it up to its highest level yet this year. Confidence in making a major purchase rose to 48.8, its highest level in 12-months, driving the index to its 2014 high.
The three-day rolling average shows declining confidence for the first days of June, but the move was not enough to derail the overall positivity of the two-week average.
Looking across all five components of the index, confidence in making a major purchase and in the labor market account for the index’s overall rise. Confidence in the national economy and in personal finances remains stable. Consumer confidence in purchasing a new home rose slightly.
Comparing the components to June 2013, confidence in the housing market is over five full points below its rating this time a year ago. Confidence in the labor market and in the national economy have rallied to levels either near or above those from 2013. Additionally, confidence in making a major purchase has risen nearly three points above June 2013. The only other component in the index, besides the housing market, that remains well below levels from a year ago is confidence in personal finances. However, it has recovered from low levels during the government shutdown and remained mostly stable in 2014.
Below are all five questions included in the index:
- Over the next six months, do you expect your personal financial situation to get better, stay the same, or get worse?
- Given the current state of your local market, is now a good or bad time to purchase a new home?
- Given the current state of the economy, is now a good time or a bad time to make a major purchase like a new car or home improvements?
- Looking ahead six months, do you think the U.S. economy will get better, stay the same, or get worse?
- Over the next six months, do you think it will become easier or more difficult to find a new job?
The next release of the ESI will be Tuesday, June 16th.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter - @CivicScience.