Consumers Ready To Spend, But Confidence In The Broader Economy Wanes

Consumer confidence rebounded slightly from its previous decline, increasing 0.6 points from 50.8 to 51.4, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The increase helped the ESI recover some of its losses from the previous reading, when the index fell 2.1 points. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase surged 3.1 points to bring the indicator to a 12-month high of 51.5. Despite this increase, consumers’ confidence in the broader U.S. economy dropped for the second straight reading, falling 1.4 points to 47.3 and bringing the indicator to its lowest point since before the 2016 election.

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Consumer confidence also increased in two of the other ESI indicators: personal finances and the labor market. Economic sentiment toward personal finances improved the most, rising 1.1 points to bring the indicator to 63.5. Confidence in the labor market increased slightly, rising 0.2 points to 44.1. Economic sentiment toward the housing market declined slightly, falling 0.1 points to 50.4.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average fell 0.9 points, declining from 51.4 to 50.5, over the course of the two-week reading. The average reached its peak on the second day of the reading, hitting 53.1 on Thursday, April 6, but declined consistently throughout the rest of the period. The rolling average reached its lowest point on Sunday, April 16, when it fell to 48.9. But before the end of the reading, the moving average regained some of its lost ground, rising 1.6 points to end at 50.5.

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The next release of the ESI will be May 2, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.