Consumers Remain More Confident In 2017 Than In 2016

Consumer confidence remained steady over the past two weeks, improving slightly from 51.2 to 51.5, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Despite only a small increase of 0.3 points, consumers have consistently felt more confident in 2017 than in 2016. The ESI’s 2017 average of 51.6 remains more than 4.0 points above its 2016 average of 47.5. Furthermore, economic sentiment among consumers failed to exceed the 50.0 threshold in 2016 until November 29, when consumer confidence reached 51.3. Since that date, the ESI has fallen below 50.0 only one time: Tuesday, February 7, when it dipped to 49.9.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading, with consumer confidence in personal finances improving the most, rising 1.8 points to 66.1. Consumers also remained most confident in their personal finances in comparison with the other four indicators, while continuing to feel least confident in the labor market. Economic sentiment toward the labor market, the broader U.S. economy, and the housing market all increased by less than 1.0 point. Confidence rose by 0.8 points to 45.0 in the labor market, 0.6 points to 49.6 in the broader U.S. economy, and 0.3 points to 49.0 in the housing market. Economic sentiment toward making a major purchase was the sole indicator to fall, declining 1.8 points to 47.9.

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The ESI’s three-day rolling average finished the two-week reading period exactly where it began at 51.4. During the course of the reading, the rolling average never dropped below 50.7. The ESI’s rolling average peaked at 52.4 on Saturday, March 4, before dropping a point to 51.4 by the end of the reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be March 21, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.