Economic Sentiment Continues Steady Increases Since August Dip

Economic sentiment among consumers continued its recent trend of steady increases, rising 0.4 points during the last two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The increase brings the ESI to 47.2, 0.9 points higher than its August 23 reading of 46.3, the last reading during which the index declined. Increased confidence in the broader U.S. economy and in making major purchases allowed the ESI to overcome declines in confidence in the index’s other three indicators.

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Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy rose 4.7 points, rising from 38.3 to 43.0 by the end of the reading. Confidence in making major purchases also rose, increasing 0.8 points to 46.9, although the indicator’s reading remains below its 2016 average of 47.83. Consumer sentiment regarding the housing market fell to 50.4, its lowest level in more than a year. Confidence in the labor market and in personal finances also declined, albeit more modestly, falling by 0.2 points and 0.3 points to 37.6 and 58.0, respectively.

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The three-day rolling average finished down 2.2 points from its starting point during the two-week period. The moving average’s highest point was on Wednesday, September 22, when the three-day rolling average peaked at 48.8 before falling to its trough of 45.4 on Monday, October 3. The three-day rolling average finished the reading at 45.8.

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The next release of the ESI will be October 18.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.