New Year Starts With Consumer Confidence At A High

During the first two weeks of 2017, consumer confidence rebounded from its previous decline to begin the year at a 12-month high, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment increased 0.6 points to 52.4, making a full recovery from its only decline in six readings that occurred during the last two weeks of 2016. Consumers’ increasing confidence has pushed the ESI to start the new year 4.9 points higher than its 2016 average of 47.5.

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The ESI’s five indicators remained relatively stable, with consumer confidence in personal finances varying the most, increasing 1.6 points to 65.3. Confidence in personal finances starts 2017 more than 6.0 points higher than its 2016 average of 59.0. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy and the labor market also increased, rising 1.3 points and 0.7 points to 53.1 and 43.8, respectively. Economic sentiment toward making a major purchase and the housing market fell slightly, with both dropping 0.4 points to 49.3 and 50.5, respectively. Changes in consumer confidence continued to follow the same 2016 trends, with consumers remaining most confident in their personal finances and least confident in the labor market.

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The ESI’s three-day rolling average remained fairly stable, finishing the two-week reading period at 51.9, 0.1 points lower than its starting point. After reaching its peak of 54.3 on Thursday, December 29, the average declined 3.0 points over the next six days to its trough of 51.3 on Wednesday, January 4. During the second half of the reading period, the average reached 52.9 on Saturday, January 7, before falling to 51.9 on Tuesday, January 10, the last day of the reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be January 24, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.