Overall Economic Sentiment Drops Slightly As Summer Winds Down

Consumer confidence dipped slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The 0.5 point decline brings the index down to 46.3 points. The ESI ends the summer 0.4 points higher than where it started in June but slightly below its summer average of 46.4 points.

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Consumer confidence in the housing market decreased the most, falling 4.1 points to 51.4 points. This drop in confidence brings consumer sentiment in the housing market to its lowest level since April 5. Confidence in the U.S. economy and in the labor market also fell by 1.1 points to 36.9 and 0.4 points to 35.8, respectively. Consumer confidence in personal finances increased 1.4 points to 58.6 points, while confidence in making major purchases increased by 0.9 points to 48.9 points. These trends reflect the patterns of the last year as confidence in the labor market, the U.S. economy, and in the housing market are at levels lower than a year ago but confidence in making major purchases and in personal finances have risen.

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The three-day rolling average reached its lowest point over the past two weeks on August 19, falling to 44.3 points. However, by release time on August 23, it had made up for the loss and reached 46.8 points.

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The next release of the ESI will be September 6.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.