Steep Drop In Consumer Confidence Erases Majority Of Post-Election Gains

Consumer confidence fell nearly 3.0 points to 49.9, its lowest level since November 15, 2016, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the economy had been increasing steadily since October 2016, rising in six of the previous seven readings. The ESI’s three-day rolling average, which tracks short-term movement during the reading, ended the two-week reading period at 48.5 on Tuesday, February 7, a total of 4.8 points lower than its peak of 53.3 on Friday, January 27.

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The ESI’s rolling average started the reading at 52.8 on Wednesday, January 25 and then increased 0.5 points to reach its highest point on Friday, January 27. Following Friday’s release of the Trump Administration’s executive order on immigration, the ESI’s rolling average tumbled, dropping 4.3 points over the weekend. The average continued to decline over the course of the week, before ending the two-week reading period at its lowest level of 48.5 on Tuesday, February 7.

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All five of the ESI’s indicators also fell, with consumer confidence in the housing market dropping 5.1 points from 50.9 to 45.8, its lowest level since 2013. In addition to consumers’ falling confidence in the housing market, consumer sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy also dropped significantly, falling 4.0 points to 49.2. Despite the magnitude of the decrease, confidence in the broader U.S. economy remains above its 2016 average of 41.12. Economic sentiment toward making a major purchase, personal finances, and the labor market also declined. Confidence in making a major purchase declined 3.2 points to 45.9 while sentiment toward both personal finances and the labor market each dropped 1.2 points, to 63.5 and 45.2, respectively.

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The next release of the ESI will be February 21, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.