Consumer Confidence Continues Its 2019 Recovery

Consumer confidence recovered for the second week in a row, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The ESI rose 1.4 points, as it continues to trend upwards in 2019 after dropping almost 5 points in December.


Click here to view image.

Four out of five of the ESI’s indicators increased during the reading period. The largest increase was consumer confidence in making a major purchase, which rose by 4.8 points to a reading of 51.9. The second largest rise was confidence in the broader economy, which went up by 2.0 points to 46.9. Despite renewed confidence in the broader economy and making a major purchase, economic sentiment toward personal finances fell by 1.4 points to 64.9. Economic sentiment toward the housing and labor markets also rose slightly, increasing by 0.8 and 0.5 points, respectively.

The recovery in the ESI this winter seems to be driven by an easing of the political and economic uncertainty that plagued December. On Friday, February 15, lawmakers reached an agreement on keeping the federal government open, the Federal Reserve has indicated it will slowly raise interest rates, and economic data has generally been strong.

However, Brexit, trade tensions, and possible economic overheating still remain as 2019 progresses.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average remained relatively flat during the reading period, beginning with a reading of 50.9 and ending the period with a reading of 51.0 – while reaching its peak of 52.7 on February 9.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, March 5, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.ts powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Recovers, Led By Renewed Ability To Make A Major Purchase

Following an almost equal drop during the last reading in January, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased 1.9 points to a reading of 50.0, reflecting growth across all components of the ESI during the past two weeks.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s surge at the start of February coincides with the announcement of a strong January jobs report. Despite the monthlong government shutdown and concern over a slowing economy, the U.S. economy added 304,000 jobs, higher than expected by initial forecasts. The employment figures were announced soon after the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay raising interest rates for the time being.

Confidence expanded across all five components of the ESI. Economic sentiment towards making a major purchase increased by 2.6 points to 47.1, while confidence in the broader U.S. economy and personal finances jumped by 2.5 points to 44.9 and 66.3 points respectively. Consumer confidence in the labor market also rose, moving up from 43.8 points to 45.3 points. Finally, consumer sentiment toward the housing market increased slightly by 0.5 points to reach 46.6 points.


Click here to view image.

The three-day moving average grew steadily into the beginning of February. During the past two weeks, the rolling average increased from a low of 47.2 points on January 23 to a high of 52.8 points on February 4, only dropping off slightly to end the reading period at 52.0 points.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, February 19, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Drops Below December Low

After a slight recovery, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped 1.8 points to a reading of 48.1. This is the ESI’s lowest level since November 15, 2016.

Click here to view image.

Of note, the University of Michigan’s January consumer confidence survey exhibited the same sharp drop to lows not seen since the 2016 election, a drop that was picked up by the ESI during its December reading. The University of Michigan index fell from 98.3 to 90.7 in January, dropping to its lowest level since October 2016.

The ESI’s drop in December coincided with steep declines in the stock market, which has improved in January. The smaller drop in consumer confidence this month occurs during a prolonged government shutdown in the United States, which has triggered declines in the past. Additionally, global fears of an economic slowdown, the failure in the United Kingdom to pass a final “Brexit” resolution, and continuing uncertainty about the future of trade policy continue to grab headlines.

Confidence fell across four of the five components of the ESI. Confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest decline, falling by 4.0 points, to a year-over-year low of 44.5. Economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy also fell precipitously, dropping by 3.3 points to 42.4. Consumer confidence in their own financial situation also dropped, falling 1.6 points to a reading of 63.8. The only indicator to rise was confidence in the broader housing market which rose by 0.4 points, while labor market confidence fell slightly by 0.2 points.

Each of these three components is now between three and eight points below their 2018 averages.

Click here to view image.

The three-day moving average fell steadily in the second half of January. During the past two weeks, it fell from a high of 51.3 points on January 9 to a low of only 46.9 points on January 12, before climbing slightly off two-week lows to end with a reading of 47.3.

Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, February 5, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Recovers To Start 2019

Consumer confidence recovered a bit during the beginning of 2019, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The ESI rose 1.3 points, offsetting some of the 4.6 point drop in December that brought the index to a two-year low.

Click here to view image.

Four out of five of the ESI’s indicators increased during the reading period. The largest increase was driven by greater confidence in the broader economy, which rose by 2.6 points. The jump in confidence about the U.S. economy was closely tracked by an increase of 2.1 points in confidence in making a major purchase. Additionally, economic sentiment toward the labor market increased by 1.9 points. Confidence in personal finances for consumers also rose slightly by 0.7 points to 65.4, while confidence in the broader housing market dropped by 0.7 points to 45.7 points.

The December decline in consumer confidence coincided with steep declines in the stock market, a trend that stalled during this two-week period. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 315,000 new jobs in December and an increase in wages, far exceeding expectations. However, trade negotiations with China still loom and the government shutdown appears to have no immediate end date.

Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average rose during the observation period, ending at a reading of 50.5, 3.0 points off its low of 47.5 points on December 26.

Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, January 22, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Plummets In December; Hits Two-Year Low

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) continued to dive over the past two weeks, dropping 2.4 points to 48.6. This is the lowest reading since November 15, 2016.

The ESI has now fallen 4.6 points in December and sits 4.4 points below the 2018 average and 7 points off the 2018 peak. The drop in consumer confidence this month coincides with a nearly 15 percent decline in the S&P 500.

Click here to view image.

Confidence fell across all five components of the ESI. Of note, confidence in making a major purchase and finding a new job fell more than 4 points. Confidence in the U.S. economy fell another 2.7 points after a 3.5 drop in the previous two weeks.

Each of these three components are now roughly 6 points below their 2018 averages. Moreover, confidence in the U.S. economy is at levels not seen since October 2016.

Confidence in buying a new home and in personal finances also dipped, but remain less than 2 points off their 2018 averages.

Click here to view image.

The three-day moving average consistently declined in the first half of December. During the past two weeks, it plateaued at 49 only to then fall 2.5 points over the weekend through December 25th.

Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, January 8, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Plunges To Lowest Level In Over A Year

Consumer confidence dropped over two points this week to 51.0 points according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This was the largest two-week period drop in one year and represents the lowest level for the ESI in over a year.


Click here to view image.

All five of the ESI’s indicators fell during the reading period. The largest decline was driven by decreased confidence in the broader economy, which fell by 3.5 points. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase also fell significantly, dropping 2.9 points to a reading of 50.9. Confidence in personal finances for consumers also fell 2.4 points to hit a reading of 65.2 during the reading period. Economic sentiment towards the housing and labor market both fell by 1.0 and 0.9 points respectively.

The reversal in overall consumer confidence comes amid greater economic uncertainty and decreasing global growth. The drop in consumer confidence occurs as volatile geopolitical tensions with China persist, synchronized global economic growth remains uncertain, and U.S. home data continues to weaken. Additionally, investors continue to express uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s plans to continue raising interest rates.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average fell during the observation period, ending at a reading of 49.1, 5.1 points off its high of 54.2 points on November 29.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, January 8, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Increased Despite Drop In Labor Market Confidence

Consumer confidence increased slightly over the past two weeks, rising 0.5 points to 53.2 according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the U.S. labor market, however, continued its steady decline from a peak of 51.1 on October 30.


Click here to view image.

Four out of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Confidence in personal finances increased the most, rising 1.7 points to 67.6, its highest level since February. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase moved up by 1.3 points to reach 53.8 points, and confidence in the housing market rose by 1.2 points to hit 48.2.

Confidence in finding a new job was the sole indicator to drop, declining by 2.1 points to hit a level of 47.1 points. While the other four indicators increased as Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales hit record highs, the decline in confidence in the U.S. labor market came as U.S. weekly jobless claims hit a 4-month high last week.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average ended the observation period at a reading of 53.4, 0.7 points off its high of 54.9 points on Tuesday, November 20.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, December 11, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Declining Confidence In The Labor And Housing Market Drives ESI’s Decline For Second-Straight Week

Consumer confidence fell by 0.9 points to 52.7 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment toward the labor and housing market experienced the largest declines as overall consumer confidence fell for the second week in a row, amid market volatility and mixed economic data.


Click here to view image.

Four out of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the labor market experienced the largest decline, dropping by 1.9 points to 49.2. The decrease in confidence in the labor market was almost matched by a 1.7 drop in housing market confidence, which fell to 47.0, almost the indicator’s lowest level this year. Consumer confidence towards the broader economy fell by 1.0 point to 49.0. Economic sentiment towards making a major purchase fell slightly, declining 0.1 points to 52.5. Confidence in making a major purchase was the only indicator to rise, increasing 0.4 points to 65.9.

The decline in consumer confidence comes amid a more turbulent and volatile economic outlook. In recent weeks, stock market volatility has increased, housing market data has disappointed, and interest rates have continued to move upwards.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period at 53.6, slightly below its peak of 54.2 on Monday, November 12.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on November 27, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Remains Flat, Labor Market Sentiment Reaches New Heights

Consumer confidence remained relatively flat over the past two weeks, falling 0.2 points to 53.6 according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the U.S. labor market continued to climb to new heights, while other categories declined.


Click here to view image.

Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest decrease, falling 1.3 points to reach 52.6, its lowest level since September. Consumer sentiment towards personal finances fell by 0.3 points to reach 65.5 points, which was counterbalanced by a 0.6 point increase in sentiment towards the labor market, which reached another record high of 51.1 points.

Confidence in the U.S. economy also fell 0.5 points to hit a level of 50.0 points, reversing most of the gains made during the previous reading period. Additionally, consumer confidence towards the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.1 points to 48.7 points.

The U.S. unemployment rate also continued to decline, reaching a 49-year low according to the most recent jobs report. Meanwhile, economic growth has exceeded 3 percent the last two consecutive quarters.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average ended the observation period at a reading of 54.1, 0.7 points off its high of 54.8 points on Tuesday, October 23.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence In U.S. Labor Market Reaches Multiyear High

Consumer confidence increased 0.6 points to 53.8 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Elevated levels of confidence in the U.S. labor market drove the index’s overall upward movement. Since the launch of the ESI in 2013, it is the highest measured level of economic sentiment towards the labor market.

This is the also ESI’s highest level since the end of February 2018, when it reached 54.3 points.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the U.S. labor market experienced the largest increase, rising 2.4 points to reach a record high of 50.5 points. Consumer sentiment towards the broader U.S. economy rose by 0.8 points to also reach 50.5 points, and sentiment towards personal finances rose by 0.3 points to 65.8 points. Additionally, consumer confidence towards the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.2 points to 48.6 points. Consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase was the only indicator to decrease, dropping from 54.3 points to 53.9 points.

The large increase in consumer confidence in the labor market comes as the Labor Department reported that U.S. unemployment hit a 49-year low in September.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average ended the observation period on a low note of 51.5 points, 4.7 points off its peak of 56.2 points on Monday, October 8.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on October 30, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.