Declining Confidence In The Labor And Housing Market Drives ESI’s Decline For Second-Straight Week

Consumer confidence fell by 0.9 points to 52.7 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment toward the labor and housing market experienced the largest declines as overall consumer confidence fell for the second week in a row, amid market volatility and mixed economic data.


Click here to view image.

Four out of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the labor market experienced the largest decline, dropping by 1.9 points to 49.2. The decrease in confidence in the labor market was almost matched by a 1.7 drop in housing market confidence, which fell to 47.0, almost the indicator’s lowest level this year. Consumer confidence towards the broader economy fell by 1.0 point to 49.0. Economic sentiment towards making a major purchase fell slightly, declining 0.1 points to 52.5. Confidence in making a major purchase was the only indicator to rise, increasing 0.4 points to 65.9.

The decline in consumer confidence comes amid a more turbulent and volatile economic outlook. In recent weeks, stock market volatility has increased, housing market data has disappointed, and interest rates have continued to move upwards.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period at 53.6, slightly below its peak of 54.2 on Monday, November 12.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on November 27, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Remains Flat, Labor Market Sentiment Reaches New Heights

Consumer confidence remained relatively flat over the past two weeks, falling 0.2 points to 53.6 according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Confidence in the U.S. labor market continued to climb to new heights, while other categories declined.


Click here to view image.

Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest decrease, falling 1.3 points to reach 52.6, its lowest level since September. Consumer sentiment towards personal finances fell by 0.3 points to reach 65.5 points, which was counterbalanced by a 0.6 point increase in sentiment towards the labor market, which reached another record high of 51.1 points.

Confidence in the U.S. economy also fell 0.5 points to hit a level of 50.0 points, reversing most of the gains made during the previous reading period. Additionally, consumer confidence towards the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.1 points to 48.7 points.

The U.S. unemployment rate also continued to decline, reaching a 49-year low according to the most recent jobs report. Meanwhile, economic growth has exceeded 3 percent the last two consecutive quarters.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average ended the observation period at a reading of 54.1, 0.7 points off its high of 54.8 points on Tuesday, October 23.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, November 13, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence In U.S. Labor Market Reaches Multiyear High

Consumer confidence increased 0.6 points to 53.8 over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Elevated levels of confidence in the U.S. labor market drove the index’s overall upward movement. Since the launch of the ESI in 2013, it is the highest measured level of economic sentiment towards the labor market.

This is the also ESI’s highest level since the end of February 2018, when it reached 54.3 points.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the U.S. labor market experienced the largest increase, rising 2.4 points to reach a record high of 50.5 points. Consumer sentiment towards the broader U.S. economy rose by 0.8 points to also reach 50.5 points, and sentiment towards personal finances rose by 0.3 points to 65.8 points. Additionally, consumer confidence towards the housing market increased slightly, moving up 0.2 points to 48.6 points. Consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase was the only indicator to decrease, dropping from 54.3 points to 53.9 points.

The large increase in consumer confidence in the labor market comes as the Labor Department reported that U.S. unemployment hit a 49-year low in September.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average ended the observation period on a low note of 51.5 points, 4.7 points off its peak of 56.2 points on Monday, October 8.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on October 30, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Remains Stable As October Begins

Consumer confidence remained relatively unchanged at 53.2 points over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). After declines from its 2018 peak on February 6, the ESI has mostly held steady, averaging 53.3.


Click here to view image.

Two of the ESI’s five indicators increased in the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest increase, rising 1.4 points to reach 54.3 points slightly below its highest level of 54.4 this year. Consumer confidence in personal finances also rose to 65.5 points. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment towards the labor market and the U.S. economy experienced decreases of 1.6 and 0.9 points, respectively. Consumer confidence in the housing market also fell slightly, dropping 0.3 points to 48.6.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period on a low note of 51.9 points, 3.3 points off its peak of 55.2 points.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on October 16, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Stays Constant Despite Decline In Sentiment Toward Personal Finances

Consumer confidence remained unchanged at 53.3 points over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI).

High levels of confidence in the U.S. labor market as well as the broader economy were offset by a 2.7 point decrease in consumer sentiment towards personal finances, resulting in no change in the index’s overall movement.


Click here to view image.

Three of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the U.S. labor market experienced the largest increase, rising 1.7 points to reach 49.0 points. In addition to the increase in consumer confidence in the labor market, consumer confidence in both the broader economy and the housing market rose by 1.2 points to 51.3 points and 48.9 points, respectively. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase dropped 1.2 points, from 54.1 points to 52.9 points. Additionally, the aforementioned 2.7 point decrease in consumer sentiment towards personal finances constitutes the largest change for the indicator since September 19, 2017.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period on a low note of 52.2 points, 2.9 points off its peak of 55.1 points. After starting the reading period at 52.5 points on Wednesday, September 5, the moving average reached its trough of 51.3 on Sunday, September 9. The rolling average quickly moved up to reach 55.1 points on Wednesday, September 12 as the U.S. and Chinese governments discussed details for a new round of trade talks. The rolling average then reversed course, dropping down to finish the reading period at 52.2 points as the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, further escalating trade tensions.


Continue reading

Consumer Confidence Rises, Driven By A Boost In Confidence In Personal Finances

As summer officially ended over Labor Day, consumer confidence jumped slightly to hit a reading of 53.3 points over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index rose a total of 0.5 points, its highest overall reading since May 29th.

The increase in the ESI was driven by consumer confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase, while economic sentiment towards the broader economy fell by 0.5 points.

Overall, four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the two-week reading period. The largest increase was in consumer sentiment towards their personal finances which rose to a reading of 67.4, a 1.3 point increase. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase increase 0.9 points to 54.1, slightly off 2018’s high of 54.4. Economic sentiment towards the housing market rose by 0.4 points to 47.8 while confidence in the labor market remained unchanged.

The only indicator to fall was consumer confidence in the broader economy which fell 0.5 points amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, with rising uncertainty over a possible trade deal between the two nations.

Over the course of the two-week reading period, the three-day rolling average rose 1.5 points, rising steadily between the beginning of the reading period on August 22nd and August 31st. The moving average then fell slightly to end the observation period at a reading of 53.6 points.

The drop in the ESI comes as NAFTA renegotiation remains imperiled with doubt. Following the news of a bilateral deal between the U.S. and Mexico on Monday, August 27th economic sentiment rose steadily, however, following the news that an agreement had yet to be reached with Canada on September 1st the moving average fell 0.7 points and then continued to fall until the conclusion of the reading period on September 4th.

Consumer Confidence Holds Steady As Confidence In U.S. Housing Market Slips

Consumer confidence remained relatively steady at 52.8 points over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index rose a total of 0.1 points, increasing from a reading of 52.7 on August 7th.

Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy jumped 2.1 points, but this change was offset by a 1.2 point decline in consumer sentiment towards the housing market. The consumer confidence trends reflect the latest economic data, which shows a strong U.S. economy paired with a “soft” housing market that faces tight supplies and rising prices.


Continue reading

Consumer Confidence Remains Steady; Holding Slightly Above Last Year’s Level

Consumer confidence remained steady over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index moved down a mere 0.2 points, falling from a reading of 52.9 on July 24 to 52.7 on August 7th.

Escalating trade tensions, inflationary economic pressures, and rising geopolitical tensions have led to growing uncertainty about the broader U.S. economy. Yet despite the heightened economic insecurity, the ESI is 0.6 points above last year’s level, indicating relatively stable consumer confidence over the past year.


Continue reading

Consumer Confidence Jumps During Amazon Prime Day

Consumer confidence improved slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index moved up 0.3 points, rising from a reading of 52.6 on July 10 to 52.9 on July 24. This marks the fourth reading period in a row that the ESI has reversed course.

The recovery in economic sentiment was driven by a 1.1 point increase in consumer confidence in making a major purchase, the largest change by any subcategory during the reading period.


Continue reading

Economic Sentiment Dips Slightly During Heightened Trade Pressures

Consumer confidence fell slightly over the last two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index dropped by a total of 0.7 points, from a reading of 53.3 points on June 26th to 52.6 points on July 10th, and marks the third reading period in a row the ESI has reversed course. Since May 1st’s reading of 52.8, the ESI has remained basically unchanged, falling only by 0.2 points. Over the same time horizon, the ESI has not exceeded 53.4 or fallen below 52.9 points.

The slight decline in economic sentiment comes amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. During the reading period two major decisions were made. First, President Trump announced an “enhanced” review process of Chinese investment in U.S. technology firms on June 27th. The U.S. announced on July 6th that they would initiate new duties of 25 percent, leading to Beijing immediately retaliated with its own tariffs.


Continue reading