Consumer confidence fell slightly over the last two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index dropped by a total of 0.7 points, from a reading of 53.3 points on June 26th to 52.6 points on July 10th, and marks the third reading period in a row the ESI has reversed course. Since May 1st’s reading of 52.8, the ESI has remained basically unchanged, falling only by 0.2 points. Over the same time horizon, the ESI has not exceeded 53.4 or fallen below 52.9 points.
The slight decline in economic sentiment comes amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. During the reading period two major decisions were made. First, President Trump announced an “enhanced” review process of Chinese investment in U.S. technology firms on June 27th. The U.S. announced on July 6th that they would initiate new duties of 25 percent, leading to Beijing immediately retaliated with its own tariffs.
After a dip at the beginning of June, consumer confidence rose over the past two weeks to reach 53.3 points, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index rose a total of 0.9 points, increasing from a reading of 52.4 on March 12th.
The bump in economic sentiment was driven by a 2.4 point increase in consumer confidence towards the housing market, as well as an equal increase in confidence in the broader economy.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell by 4.7 points, the largest drop this year, according to the HPS-Civic Science Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Overall consumer confidence fell by 1.0 point to reach a reading of 52.4. After rising steadily in January to hit a peak reading 55.6 at the beginning of February, the ESI has declined steadily, falling 3.2 points. Despite the general drop in consumer confidence this year, economic sentiment remains slightly above last year’s levels.
The large decline in confidence in the U.S. economy comes amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. Following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada and Europe on May 31st, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on June 9th. On the same day, the ESI’s three-day moving average hit its lowest level with a reading of 51.6.
Confidence in the U.S. economy since May 1st surged by a total of 5.3 points, following a 1.6 point increase over the past two weeks. Overall, consumer confidence during the month of May increased by only 0.6 points due to a decline in economic sentiment towards personal finances and purchasing a home. The past two weeks continued trends from early May, with the overall index up 0.1 points, moving up from a reading of 53.3 points on May 15th to 53.4 points on May 29th.
The Economic Sentiment Index increased slightly, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), thanks to increased confidence in the broader U.S. economy. The index reading improved by a total of 0.5 points, from a reading of 52.8 points to 53.3 points. The renewed confidence in the U.S. economy offset declines in consumer faith in the housing market, making a major purchase, and personal finances.
After falling from February highs, consumer confidence has remained relatively consistent over the last two months, with an average reading of 52.9. During this time-period, the ESI has never exceeded 53.6 or fallen below 51.9 – a difference of 1.7 points.
Consumer confidence recovered for the first time in six weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index increased by a total of 0.9 points, from a reading of 51.9 points on April 17th to 52.8 points on May 1st, while the three-day moving average ended at near highs of 53.9.
Consumer confidence continued to decline over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index dropped by a total of 1.2 points, declining from a reading of 53.1 points on April 3rd to 51.9 points on April 17th. This is the lowest level the ESI has hit since December 12th, 2017 and is 3.7 points off of its 2018 high from early February.
Following a short bump in economic sentiment, consumer confidence declined by 0.5 points over the past two weeks to reach 53.1 points, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While the ESI remains 2.5 points off 2018 highs, the index remains in line with 2017’s high-point of 53.2, a 0.1 point difference.
After a dip in February, consumer confidence recovered slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index rose a total of 0.8 points, rising from a reading of 52.9 on March 6th to 53.7 on March 20th. Consumer confidence remains slightly above 2017 levels, as this week’s reading exceeded last year’s high-point of 53.2 by 0.5 points.
The recovery in economic sentiment was driven by a 2.1 point increase in consumer confidence in the broader economy, the largest move by any subcategory during the reading period.
Four out of the ESI’s five indicators rose during the two-week period. As stated above, confidence in the broader U.S. economy experienced the largest change of any indicator during the reading period, up from 49.6 to 51.7. Consumer sentiment toward making a major purchase also rose by 1.6 points to 54.4, its highest reading for 2018. Additionally, confidence in the U.S. labor market rose to 48.3.
Consumer confidence in personal finances declined for the third consecutive reading and was the only indicator to fall, dropping 1.2 points to 64.5 its lowest reading since July 11, 2017.
The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period on a low note at 52.5, 2.9 points off a high-point of 55.4. The moving average reached its lowest point of 51.6 the day following the announcement that National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn was leaving the White House. Afterward, the three-day rolling average generally rose, reaching a high of 55.4 on March 16.
The next release of the ESI will be April 3, 2018.
Consumer confidence dropped 1.4 points to 52.9, its lowest level in 2018 so far, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This is the ESI’s second consecutive reading with a decline, following the previous reading’s drop of 1.3 points, from 55.6 to 54.3 on Tuesday, February 20.
Plunging confidence in the broader U.S. economy fueled the index’s overall decline, as that indicator dropped by 3.4 points to 49.6.