Category Archives: Information and Insights

Americans’ Economic Sentiment Unchanged Despite Record-Low Confidence In U.S. Job Market

Economic sentiment continued to plateau over the past two weeks as gains in confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase balanced out record-low sentiment towards the job market and a major decline in confidence towards the overall economy. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) fell 0.2 points to 44.6, marking the third consecutive reading within this 0.2 point range and indicating a steady position of low consumer confidence. The reading was particularly weighed down by a continued drop in confidence in the job market, which surpassed last reading’s record-low to a new historic low of 28.8.


Click here to view image.

May’s individual indicators have been marked by a substantial divergence between confidence towards the job market and the overall U.S. economy and the remaining indicators. Though overall confidence has remained steady, May has seen dramatic declines in job market and broad economic confidence, which have now fallen 5.8 and 7.1 points, respectively, from their April highs. Confidence in the job market broke last reading’s record-low, falling 3.0 points over the past two weeks to a new historic low of 28.8, while confidence in the U.S. economy fell 4.3 points to 49.1. Simultaneously, confidence in making a major purchase, personal finances, and the housing market all recorded sustained rebounds. Confidence in making a major purchase and personal finances rose the most over the past two weeks, increasing by 2.5 and 2.2 points, respectively. Confidence in the housing market also increased by 1.6 points to 49.7.

Changes in sentiment come amid continuously high jobless claims as 2.4 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, bringing total filings during the pandemic to 38.6 million people. The sobering numbers highlight that businesses are still laying off workers while states are increasingly moving to reopen their economies. There has also been a large economic impact on small businesses. Over 100,000 small businesses have permanently closed, including three percent of all restaurants, and many of those left standing are still concerned about reopening. There are, however, signs of economic life as air travel, hotel bookings, and mortgage applications all seem to be rebounding.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on May 13 at 42.5 before dropping to its low of 42.1 on May 18. The reading then fluctuated heavily, but moved upward, ending the reading on May 26 at its peak of 47.2.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, June 10, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic Sentiment Plateaus As Confidence In The Job Market Falls To All-Time Low

Consumer sentiment leveled out over the past two weeks following April’s uptick of confidence. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) only rose 0.1 points to 44.8 during a two-week period where states and the federal government began making plans to reopen the economy. The plateau in confidence was driven by drops in three categories, including confidence in the job market, which reached a historic low days after the country’s unemployment rate jumped to 14.7%.


Click here to view image.

Though overall confidence remained steady, there was substantial movement among the ESI’s individual indicators over the past two weeks. Confidence in the housing market increased for a second-straight reading, rising 3.4 points to 48.1. Also continuing to recover was confidence in making a major purchase, which increased 0.7 points to 39.3. Weighing the ESI  down were dips in three other indicators; confidence in the overall economy led the decline, falling 2.8 points to 53.4, reversing a previous eight-week rebound. Also dropping were confidence in personal finances and confidence in the job market, which fell by 0.7 and 0.4 points, respectively, to 51.2 and 31.8. Confidence in the job market is now at the lowest level since the inception of the ESI.

Changes in sentiment come as April’s jobs data saw another jump in the US unemployment rate, which now stands at 14.7%, but may in fact be much higher. Countering these numbers was some positive economic news. The S&P 500 rose 3.5% last week, and the number of new requests for government-backed forbearance has slowed. More states began to ease lockdown measures over the past two weeks, and Americans report they see less of a risk in engaging in social activities. 


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on April 29 at 46.3, rising on May 1 to its two-week high of 47.3. A sharp decline on May 2 was followed by a gradual decline to the two-week low of 42.7 on May 9, the day after the release of April’s jobs report. Confidence rebounded on May 10 and closed out the two-week stretch on May 12 at 44.2.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, May 27, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Continues To Recover Amid Calls For Reopening

Consumer confidence rose for the second straight reading on April 29, following March’s record-breaking decline. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards, building on last reading’s 1.5 point increase, rising 2.1 points to 44.7. The rise was driven by a strong increase in confidence in making a major purchase and the housing market. Despite its April increase, the recording still remains one of the ESI’s lowest ever.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Gains in confidence toward making a major purchase and the housing market drove the sentiment increase with each measure rising, 4.8 and 4.4 points, respectively. Confidence in making a major purchase now stands at 38.6 while confidence in the housing market stands at 44.7, but both remain significantly lower than their previous 2020 highs of 57.4 and 54.4. Confidence in personal finances also rose 2.3 points to 51.9 on the heels of the Internal Revenue Service beginning to roll out stimulus payments to eligible Americans. Confidence in the U.S. economy also rose by 1.5 points to 56.2, a new 2020 high. Following four record-shattering weeks of unemployment claims, confidence in the job market fell by 1.5 points to 32.2, hovering around its all-time low.

The increase in economic sentiment comes amid an inflection point for economic activity as some states begin to loosen stay at home orders and position towards reopening, while others have extended their orders further into May. Congress has also acted to continue to boost the economy by passing a new $484 billion relief packaged primarily aimed at expanding the Paycheck Protection Program, which is designed to aid small businesses across the country. Despite 26 million people filing for unemployment insurance over the past five weeks and oil futures going below $0 for the first time ever, stocks continue to rise on optimism toward a return to economic activity.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch steadily rising to a peak of 47.5 on April 21. It then steadily declined until April 27, reaching its low of 41.9 before dramatically rebounding to end the reading on April 28 at 44.4.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, May 13, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic Sentiment Shows Early Signs Of A Rebound

Consumer economic sentiment rebounded slightly from a historic low over the last two weeks as the stock market showed signs of recovery and as government officials began discussing when and how to reopen the economy. Following the last reading’s record-shattering drop, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards, rising 2.5 points to 42.6. The newest reading now marks the second-lowest reading in the ESI’s history.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Leading the upswing were strong gains in confidence toward personal finances and the overall economy, which rose by 4.6 and 4.1 points, respectively, to 49.6 and 54.7. Confidence in the overall economy is now at its highest level since June 2018. Also posting gains were confidence in making a major purchase and confidence in finding a new job, which inched upwards by 3.0 points and 2.6 points, respectively. The one metric to decline was confidence in the housing market, which sank 1.6 points to a new all-time low of 40.3.

Changes in economic sentiment coincided with mixed economic news. Reports last week indicated that the White House is pushing to open the economy by May 1, in an effort to mitigate the economic damage caused by lockdowns. By the close of trading last Thursday, U.S. stocks posted their biggest weekly gains since 1974, rising 12% in four days. But the fallout of COVID-19 continues to be felt throughout the economy. Almost 17 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance since mid-March, and more than 2 million American mortgage holders – representing 4% of all U.S. home loans – are now in forbearance, a metric that is rising exponentially.


Click here to view image.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on April 1 just north of the all-time low, at 40.3, and rose steadily between April 4 and April 9. A tapering off on April 10 and 11 was followed by a jump on April 12 to 44.3, before leveling off at 44.0 to close out the reading.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 29, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic Sentiment Hits All-Time Low Amid Global Pandemic

Amid record stock swings, unemployment claims, and increasing state mandated stay-at-home orders, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) plummeted 9.3 points over the past two weeks to 40.1. This is both the largest-ever two-week drop and the lowest-ever recording in the ESI’s history. The decline was led by staggering drops in confidence towards making a major purchase and personal finances, with both hitting record lows.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell over the past two weeks. Confidence in making a major purchase fell by 18.0 points to 30.8, the sharpest decline and lowest level in the history of the ESI. Confidence in personal finances also fell at a staggering rate, dropping by 13.6 points to 45.0, both record lows. Confidence in the housing market ended its month long rise, falling 12.5 points to 41.9. Following record-high jobless claims, confidence in the job market also experienced a dip, falling 6.1 points to 32.0. Confidence in the U.S. economy was the sole indicator to rise, increasing on the heels of the passage of the $2 trillion CARES Act.

The massive decline follows a month of slumping confidence and comes amid new data revealing the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street had its worst quarter since 2008, and Main Street is also struggling as states across the country continue to implement stay-at-home orders , closing all non-essential businesses. To help alleviate these economic impacts, the U.S. government has pledged to inject nearly $6 trillion into the economy through the CARES Act and Federal Reserve action.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average started at its peak of 44.2 on March 18 and constantly fell to a low of 37.7 on March 22. The reading then experienced a bump, steadily rising before a drop to end the reading on at 40.6.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 15, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Hits 14-Month Low Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

As the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) brings countries and the global economy to a standstill, consumer confidence continued its drastic decline, slipping to its lowest point in over a year. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) followed last reading’s fall of 1.9 points with a 2.4 point drop to land at 49.4, its lowest reading since January 2019.

As countries face disruptions to global supply chains and consumer demand shifts to reflect social distancing measures and closed businesses, consumer sentiment towards the labor market, personal finances, and making a major purchase have all plummeted. On the other hand, sentiment toward the broader US economy has improved, and confidence in the housing market remains strong.


Click here to view image.

Three of the ESI’s indicators fell over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in the labor market fell the most, plummeting by 5.3 points to 38.1, its lowest reading since 2015. Sentiment toward personal finances and making a major purchase decreased by 5.2 and 4.8 points, respectively. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy improved by 2.3 points to 47.0, and sentiment toward the housing market increased by 1.1 points to 54.4.

The stark decline continues the overall downward trend since the start of year, and comes amid the rapidly evolving COVID-19 crisis. As countries around the world move to contain the pandemic, the U.S. has seen stock markets plummet and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero and promise to buy at least $700 billion in government and mortgage-related bonds. Meanwhile, state governments are taking action to slow the spread of the virus and encourage social distancing, resulting in slowed economic activity both in the U.S. and abroad.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average started at 51.1 and remained relatively steady before hitting its peak of 52.4 on March 11. It then declined to reach a low of 44.2 on March 16 before closing the reading on a slight upswing, ending at 45.5.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 1, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Rebound In Consumer Confidence Short-Lived As Economic Sentiment Drops Sharply Over Fears About The U.S. Economy

Consumer confidence fell considerably over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), following a slight uptick in confidence in the last reading. The ESI fell 1.9 points over the past two weeks. Fueling the drop was a drastic decrease of 5.0 points in confidence in the overall U.S. economy. Counterintuitively, confidence in the housing market rose to a 12-month high.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell over the past two weeks. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy dropped the most drastically, falling 5.0 points to 44.7, its largest drop since August 2019. Confidence in labor markets fell by 2.6 points and confidence in making a major purchase fell by 2.3 points, to 43.4 and 53.6, respectively. Confidence in personal finances posted a more modest decline, falling 1.2 points to 63.8. The only indicator to rise over the past two weeks was confidence in the housing market, which rose 1.4 points to 53.3.

The sharp decline in consumer confidence comes as uncertainty grows surrounding the economic impact of the global coronavirus epidemic. U.S. stocks last week suffered their worst weekly losses since the 2008 financial crisis. New home sales, however, jumped 7.9% in January — to the highest level since July 2007 — according to Commerce Department data released last week. Relatedly, 30-year mortgage rates reached their lowest rates in February since July 2016, according to Freddie Mac data.


Click here to view image.

The three-day moving average began the two-week stretch by posting substantial increases, peaking at 55.6 on February 21. It then experienced a steady decline, rebounding slightly on February 25 and 26 before declining more dramatically. After hitting a two-week low of 47.8 on March 2, the moving average rebounded, ending at 49.7 on March 3.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, March 18, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Increased Confidence In Labor Market, Overall Economy Produce Modest Gain In Consumer Sentiment

Consumer confidence increased slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), rebounding from a plunge in confidence in the last reading. The ESI rose by 0.4 points to 53.7 over the past two weeks. The modest rise was driven by significant improvements in sentiment towards labor markets and the broader U.S. economy, which were largely offset by continued drops in the Major Purchases, Personal Finances and New Home indicators.


Click here to view image.

Two of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in labor markets experienced the largest improvement, rising by 1.8 points to 46.0, while confidence in the broader U.S. economy rose 1.5 points to 49.7. These increases were largely balanced out by drops in other indicators. Confidence towards making a major purchase and housing markets both dropped by 0.4 points to 55.9 and 51.9, respectively. Consumer confidence in personal finances dropped 0.4 points to 65.0.

The moderate increase comes after the release of a better-than-expected jobs report for January, with unemployment remaining near 50-year lows and the labor force participation rate reaching a seven-year high. Weighing on the economy, however, is the continued threat posed by Covid-19 and its creeping impact on earnings.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average peaked shortly after the release of the January job numbers, reaching 54.8 on Feb. 9. It then experienced a steady decline, reaching its low of 52.8 on Feb 15 and again on February 17 before rebounding to end at 53.7 on Feb. 18.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, March 4, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Timber! Consumer Confidence Plummets Across All Indicators

Consumer confidence fell quickly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Despite last reading’s surge, the ESI fell from its peak by 1.2 points to 53.3. The steep decline was the result of sagging confidence across the board, but driven by a significant drop in confidence towards the labor market.


Click here to view image.

All five of the ESI’s indicators fell over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in the labor market fell the most, decreasing by 2.8 points to 44.2. Sentiment toward making a major purchase and the U.S. economy both decreased by 1.1 points to 48.2 and 56.3, respectively. Reductions in confidence in the housing market and personal finances rounded out the sour reading as they fell by 0.8 and 0.1 points.

The decline follows January’s boost of confidence and comes amid a wave of destabilizing news, including the senate impeachment trial and fear over the spread of the novel coronavirus. This news has driven down markets, led to swings in oil prices , and kept American’s on the edge of their seat.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average started at its peak of 54.9. It then experienced a steady decline, reaching its low of 52.0 on January 30 and again on Feb. 3 before closing the reading on an upswing, ending at 53.5.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, February 18, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer Confidence Rebounds To Highest Level In Nearly Two Years

Consumer confidence rebounded significantly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following last reading’s decline of 1.2 points, the ESI moved up by 2.5 points during this reading to reach 54.5, its highest level since February 2018’s reading of 55.6. The rebound was led by large increases in consumer confidence in making a major purchase and confidence toward the labor market.


Click here to view image.

Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest improvement, rising by 3.7 points to 57.4. Sentiment toward the labor and housing markets also jumped by similar amounts, moving up 3.5 and 3.3 points, respectively. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy also improved, increasing by 2.5 points. Meanwhile, the only indicator to drop was confidence in personal finances, which declined by 0.6 points to 65.5.

The rebound comes on the heels of several positive economic signals, including the long-awaited signing of the U.S.-China phase one trade deal and a solid December jobs report that concluded 2019’s significant job growth of over 2.1 million jobs. Additionally, earnings season kicked off to a strong start, with several American banks reporting better-than-expected earnings.


Click here to view image.

The three-day rolling average started off the last two-week period on the upswing, rising from 50.7 on January 8 to a peak of 56.4 on January 11. The moving average then dropped a little before leveling out to end the reading period at 55.0.


Click here to view image.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, February 4, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.