The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) continued last reading’s decline, dropping 1.6 points to 46.2. The four week-long decline follows on the heels of a massive increase of confidence at the beginning of June as the economy began to fully reopen. Since then, there have been large spikes in new cases in states across the country, and confidence in the U.S. economy has plummeted 8.0 points from its June peak, its largest decline during the pandemic.

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Four of the five ESI indicators declined over the past two weeks. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy tanked by 5.5 points down to 48.2 as some states and localities impose new restrictions on economic activity. Confidence in personal finances also had a significant drop off, falling 1.8 points to 52.3, its lowest level since May. Confidence toward the job market and the housing market also experienced slight declines, falling 0.8 and 0.2 points, respectively. Consumers’ confidence in making a major purchase was the sole indicator to rise, increasing 0.1 points to 44.8. 

The recent surge in cases is impacting the economy as states and localities weigh halting economic reopenings. The surge also seems to be impacting consumer behavior as new cellphone data reveals that fewer consumers are patronizing businesses in states that are seeing a rising COVID case load. Many experts are now reconsidering the country’s growth trajectory for the rest of the year, with Goldman Sachs reducing its third-quarter GDP outlook by eight percentage points due to concerns of the increasing virus cases. The uncertainty around economic reopening has put a shadow on last week’s positive jobs report in which the economy added 4.8 million jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1%, marking the second-consecutive month of growth.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at its peak of 49.0 on June 24 before dropping to its low of 43.6 on July 2. The moving average then had a rocky rebound, closing out the reading on July 7 at 47.5.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, July 22, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Following the largest ever reading-to-reading increase in its seven-year history, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) lost momentum, dropping 1.3 points to 47.8. While the last reading was driven by record-setting surges in confidence toward the job market and the economy, this reading’s drop was driven by significant losses from those very same indicators.

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Three of the ESI indicators declined over the past two weeks. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy plummeted by 2.5 points down to 53.7, while confidence in the job market decreased by 2.4 points to 33.6. Confidence toward making a major purchase also experienced losses, declining by 1.5 points to 44.7. Consumers’ confidence in the housing market experienced no change, remaining at 53.1, its highest level since March. The only indicator to improve was confidence in personal finances, which rose 0.2 points to 54.1. 

The decline in consumer confidence occurs as many states begin to reopen and the economy shows mixed signs of recovery. Among the states that have reopened and hoped to improve economic activity, some have seen COVID-19 cases begin to increase once more. Though unemployment has declined and layoffs have slowed, concerns about the resurgence of coronavirus have left many unsure about how well the job market can sustain its gains. While consumer spending is slowly recovering, new data shows that the largest cutback in spending came from the highest-earning quarter of Americans, whose spending accounts for about half of the decline in consumption during this recession and continues to recover at the slowest rate as compared to other quartiles. Between stimulus benefits and lowered consumption, the U.S. savings rate has skyrocketed, but tens of millions of unemployed workers face a fast-approaching “income cliff” as additional federal unemployment benefits disappear at the end of July.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch at its peak of 51.6 on June 10 before dropping to its low of 43.2 on June 16. The moving average then slowly bounced back, closing out the reading on June 23 at 49.0.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, July 8, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic sentiment rocketed up over the past two weeks, ending its month-and-a-half long plateau. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased 4.5 points to 49.1, setting a new record for largest ever reading-to-reading increase in the ESI’s history and reaching its highest level since March 17. The reading was driven by record-setting surges in confidence toward the job market and the economy following a surprisingly positive jobs report last week and emerging signs of an economic recovery.

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All five of the ESI indicators increased over the past two weeks as consumer confidence across economic indicators returned to levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Confidence in the job market rose dramatically from its all-time low of 28.8, rising 7.2 points to 36.0. This rebound marks the largest reading-to-reading increase for the indicator in the ESI’s history and comes amidst a surprising May job’s report in which the U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs, dramatically beating expectations. Confidence in the U.S. economy experienced a similar record-setting surge, rebounding by 7.1 points to 56.2. Consumers also showed increased confidence in their willingness to spend, as confidence toward making a major purchase and the housing market increased by 4.4 and 3.4 points, respectively. These rebounds come amid a 20% increase in mortgage applications compared to last year. Confidence in personal finances also rose, increasing by 0.5 points reaching 53.9, its highest level since March. 

The rapid rebound in consumer confidence comes amid a ray of positive economic news. Outside of May’s job report there are some other signs of economic recovery as home mortgage applications, hotel reservations, restaurant bookings, air travel, and driving have all substantially increased. The sustained rise in economic metrics has given some optimists hope that the worst of the COVID-induced recession is over, and a quick economic recovery is to follow. This optimism has helped carry the Nasdaq to a record high, and helped the S&P 500 erase all its losses for 2020. Despite positive signs of recovery, the National Bureau of Economic Research has officially noted that the U.S. economy is in a recession and new research shows that more businesses have shut their doors for good in the last three months than during all of the Great Recession. Future readings will provide a better sense for the impact these developments have on consumer confidence.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on May 27 at 47.3 before dropping to its low of 45.5 on June 4. The reading then had a sustained rebound, closing out the reading on June 9 at its peak of 52.5.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, June 24, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Economic sentiment continued to plateau over the past two weeks as gains in confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase balanced out record-low sentiment towards the job market and a major decline in confidence towards the overall economy. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) fell 0.2 points to 44.6, marking the third consecutive reading within this 0.2 point range and indicating a steady position of low consumer confidence. The reading was particularly weighed down by a continued drop in confidence in the job market, which surpassed last reading’s record-low to a new historic low of 28.8.

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May’s individual indicators have been marked by a substantial divergence between confidence towards the job market and the overall U.S. economy and the remaining indicators. Though overall confidence has remained steady, May has seen dramatic declines in job market and broad economic confidence, which have now fallen 5.8 and 7.1 points, respectively, from their April highs. Confidence in the job market broke last reading’s record-low, falling 3.0 points over the past two weeks to a new historic low of 28.8, while confidence in the U.S. economy fell 4.3 points to 49.1. Simultaneously, confidence in making a major purchase, personal finances, and the housing market all recorded sustained rebounds. Confidence in making a major purchase and personal finances rose the most over the past two weeks, increasing by 2.5 and 2.2 points, respectively. Confidence in the housing market also increased by 1.6 points to 49.7.

Changes in sentiment come amid continuously high jobless claims as 2.4 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, bringing total filings during the pandemic to 38.6 million people. The sobering numbers highlight that businesses are still laying off workers while states are increasingly moving to reopen their economies. There has also been a large economic impact on small businesses. Over 100,000 small businesses have permanently closed, including three percent of all restaurants, and many of those left standing are still concerned about reopening. There are, however, signs of economic life as air travel, hotel bookings, and mortgage applications all seem to be rebounding.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on May 13 at 42.5 before dropping to its low of 42.1 on May 18. The reading then fluctuated heavily, but moved upward, ending the reading on May 26 at its peak of 47.2.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, June 10, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer sentiment leveled out over the past two weeks following April’s uptick of confidence. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) only rose 0.1 points to 44.8 during a two-week period where states and the federal government began making plans to reopen the economy. The plateau in confidence was driven by drops in three categories, including confidence in the job market, which reached a historic low days after the country’s unemployment rate jumped to 14.7%.

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Though overall confidence remained steady, there was substantial movement among the ESI’s individual indicators over the past two weeks. Confidence in the housing market increased for a second-straight reading, rising 3.4 points to 48.1. Also continuing to recover was confidence in making a major purchase, which increased 0.7 points to 39.3. Weighing the ESI  down were dips in three other indicators; confidence in the overall economy led the decline, falling 2.8 points to 53.4, reversing a previous eight-week rebound. Also dropping were confidence in personal finances and confidence in the job market, which fell by 0.7 and 0.4 points, respectively, to 51.2 and 31.8. Confidence in the job market is now at the lowest level since the inception of the ESI.

Changes in sentiment come as April’s jobs data saw another jump in the US unemployment rate, which now stands at 14.7%, but may in fact be much higher. Countering these numbers was some positive economic news. The S&P 500 rose 3.5% last week, and the number of new requests for government-backed forbearance has slowed. More states began to ease lockdown measures over the past two weeks, and Americans report they see less of a risk in engaging in social activities. 

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on April 29 at 46.3, rising on May 1 to its two-week high of 47.3. A sharp decline on May 2 was followed by a gradual decline to the two-week low of 42.7 on May 9, the day after the release of April’s jobs report. Confidence rebounded on May 10 and closed out the two-week stretch on May 12 at 44.2.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, May 27, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer confidence rose for the second straight reading on April 29, following March’s record-breaking decline. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards, building on last reading’s 1.5 point increase, rising 2.1 points to 44.7. The rise was driven by a strong increase in confidence in making a major purchase and the housing market. Despite its April increase, the recording still remains one of the ESI’s lowest ever.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Gains in confidence toward making a major purchase and the housing market drove the sentiment increase with each measure rising, 4.8 and 4.4 points, respectively. Confidence in making a major purchase now stands at 38.6 while confidence in the housing market stands at 44.7, but both remain significantly lower than their previous 2020 highs of 57.4 and 54.4. Confidence in personal finances also rose 2.3 points to 51.9 on the heels of the Internal Revenue Service beginning to roll out stimulus payments to eligible Americans. Confidence in the U.S. economy also rose by 1.5 points to 56.2, a new 2020 high. Following four record-shattering weeks of unemployment claims, confidence in the job market fell by 1.5 points to 32.2, hovering around its all-time low.

The increase in economic sentiment comes amid an inflection point for economic activity as some states begin to loosen stay at home orders and position towards reopening, while others have extended their orders further into May. Congress has also acted to continue to boost the economy by passing a new $484 billion relief packaged primarily aimed at expanding the Paycheck Protection Program, which is designed to aid small businesses across the country. Despite 26 million people filing for unemployment insurance over the past five weeks and oil futures going below $0 for the first time ever, stocks continue to rise on optimism toward a return to economic activity.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch steadily rising to a peak of 47.5 on April 21. It then steadily declined until April 27, reaching its low of 41.9 before dramatically rebounding to end the reading on April 28 at 44.4.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, May 13, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer economic sentiment rebounded slightly from a historic low over the last two weeks as the stock market showed signs of recovery and as government officials began discussing when and how to reopen the economy. Following the last reading’s record-shattering drop, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) inched upwards, rising 2.5 points to 42.6. The newest reading now marks the second-lowest reading in the ESI’s history.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose over the past two weeks. Leading the upswing were strong gains in confidence toward personal finances and the overall economy, which rose by 4.6 and 4.1 points, respectively, to 49.6 and 54.7. Confidence in the overall economy is now at its highest level since June 2018. Also posting gains were confidence in making a major purchase and confidence in finding a new job, which inched upwards by 3.0 points and 2.6 points, respectively. The one metric to decline was confidence in the housing market, which sank 1.6 points to a new all-time low of 40.3.

Changes in economic sentiment coincided with mixed economic news. Reports last week indicated that the White House is pushing to open the economy by May 1, in an effort to mitigate the economic damage caused by lockdowns. By the close of trading last Thursday, U.S. stocks posted their biggest weekly gains since 1974, rising 12% in four days. But the fallout of COVID-19 continues to be felt throughout the economy. Almost 17 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance since mid-March, and more than 2 million American mortgage holders – representing 4% of all U.S. home loans – are now in forbearance, a metric that is rising exponentially.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began the two-week stretch on April 1 just north of the all-time low, at 40.3, and rose steadily between April 4 and April 9. A tapering off on April 10 and 11 was followed by a jump on April 12 to 44.3, before leveling off at 44.0 to close out the reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 29, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Amid record stock swings, unemployment claims, and increasing state mandated stay-at-home orders, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) plummeted 9.3 points over the past two weeks to 40.1. This is both the largest-ever two-week drop and the lowest-ever recording in the ESI’s history. The decline was led by staggering drops in confidence towards making a major purchase and personal finances, with both hitting record lows.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell over the past two weeks. Confidence in making a major purchase fell by 18.0 points to 30.8, the sharpest decline and lowest level in the history of the ESI. Confidence in personal finances also fell at a staggering rate, dropping by 13.6 points to 45.0, both record lows. Confidence in the housing market ended its month long rise, falling 12.5 points to 41.9. Following record-high jobless claims, confidence in the job market also experienced a dip, falling 6.1 points to 32.0. Confidence in the U.S. economy was the sole indicator to rise, increasing on the heels of the passage of the $2 trillion CARES Act.

The massive decline follows a month of slumping confidence and comes amid new data revealing the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street had its worst quarter since 2008, and Main Street is also struggling as states across the country continue to implement stay-at-home orders , closing all non-essential businesses. To help alleviate these economic impacts, the U.S. government has pledged to inject nearly $6 trillion into the economy through the CARES Act and Federal Reserve action.

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The three-day rolling average started at its peak of 44.2 on March 18 and constantly fell to a low of 37.7 on March 22. The reading then experienced a bump, steadily rising before a drop to end the reading on at 40.6.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 15, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

As the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) brings countries and the global economy to a standstill, consumer confidence continued its drastic decline, slipping to its lowest point in over a year. The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) followed last reading’s fall of 1.9 points with a 2.4 point drop to land at 49.4, its lowest reading since January 2019.

As countries face disruptions to global supply chains and consumer demand shifts to reflect social distancing measures and closed businesses, consumer sentiment towards the labor market, personal finances, and making a major purchase have all plummeted. On the other hand, sentiment toward the broader US economy has improved, and confidence in the housing market remains strong.

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Three of the ESI’s indicators fell over the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in the labor market fell the most, plummeting by 5.3 points to 38.1, its lowest reading since 2015. Sentiment toward personal finances and making a major purchase decreased by 5.2 and 4.8 points, respectively. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy improved by 2.3 points to 47.0, and sentiment toward the housing market increased by 1.1 points to 54.4.

The stark decline continues the overall downward trend since the start of year, and comes amid the rapidly evolving COVID-19 crisis. As countries around the world move to contain the pandemic, the U.S. has seen stock markets plummet and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero and promise to buy at least $700 billion in government and mortgage-related bonds. Meanwhile, state governments are taking action to slow the spread of the virus and encourage social distancing, resulting in slowed economic activity both in the U.S. and abroad.

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The three-day rolling average started at 51.1 and remained relatively steady before hitting its peak of 52.4 on March 11. It then declined to reach a low of 44.2 on March 16 before closing the reading on a slight upswing, ending at 45.5.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 1, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Consumer confidence fell considerably over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), following a slight uptick in confidence in the last reading. The ESI fell 1.9 points over the past two weeks. Fueling the drop was a drastic decrease of 5.0 points in confidence in the overall U.S. economy. Counterintuitively, confidence in the housing market rose to a 12-month high.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell over the past two weeks. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy dropped the most drastically, falling 5.0 points to 44.7, its largest drop since August 2019. Confidence in labor markets fell by 2.6 points and confidence in making a major purchase fell by 2.3 points, to 43.4 and 53.6, respectively. Confidence in personal finances posted a more modest decline, falling 1.2 points to 63.8. The only indicator to rise over the past two weeks was confidence in the housing market, which rose 1.4 points to 53.3.

The sharp decline in consumer confidence comes as uncertainty grows surrounding the economic impact of the global coronavirus epidemic. U.S. stocks last week suffered their worst weekly losses since the 2008 financial crisis. New home sales, however, jumped 7.9% in January — to the highest level since July 2007 — according to Commerce Department data released last week. Relatedly, 30-year mortgage rates reached their lowest rates in February since July 2016, according to Freddie Mac data.

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The three-day moving average began the two-week stretch by posting substantial increases, peaking at 55.6 on February 21. It then experienced a steady decline, rebounding slightly on February 25 and 26 before declining more dramatically. After hitting a two-week low of 47.8 on March 2, the moving average rebounded, ending at 49.7 on March 3.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, March 18, 2020.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper, and follow us on Twitter – @HPS_CS.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. New York, and California. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.