Confidence in the U.S. economy since May 1st surged by a total of 5.3 points, following a 1.6 point increase over the past two weeks. Overall, consumer confidence during the month of May increased by only 0.6 points due to a decline in economic sentiment towards personal finances and purchasing a home. The past two weeks continued trends from early May, with the overall index up 0.1 points, moving up from a reading of 53.3 points on May 15th to 53.4 points on May 29th.
Three of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the two-week reading period. Confidence in the broader economy jumped 1.6 points, from 51.1 points to 52.7 points. Consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase rose from 52.9 points to 53.5 points, a 0.6 point increase. At the same time, economic sentiment towards the U.S. housing market increased slightly from 48.4 points to 48.8 points.
Meanwhile, confidence in the U.S. labor market dropped by 1.2 points, moving down 1.2 points to a reading of 47.2. Economic sentiment towards personal finances also declined, dropping from 65.6 points to 65.0 points.
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The ESI’s three-day rolling average was particularly volatile over the past two weeks. After falling from 54.4 points on May 16th to a low point of 51.6 points on May 19th, the moving average bounced back to reach its high point of 55.4 on May 24th. The jump, however, was short-lived, as the three-day rolling average dropped down to 52.3 points to end the reading period.
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The next release of the ESI will be June 12, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.