Consumer Confidence Continues Slide As Confidence In Labor Market Plummets
Consumer confidence continued to decline over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Following a 0.9-point drop at the end of May, the ESI declined by 1.3 points to 51.6 points over the past two weeks, the largest drop this year. The decline brings the ESI to its lowest reading since March.
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Four of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during the reading. Consumer confidence in the labor market experienced the largest drop, declining by 3.7 points to 44.4 – its lowest point since January of this year. Economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy and personal finances also dropped, decreasing by 1.5 and 1.2 points, respectively. Sentiment toward the broader economy is at its lowest point since February of this year. Confidence in making a major purchase also declined by 0.3 points. Meanwhile, economic sentiment toward the housing market was the lone indicator to improve, rising 0.3 points to 49.8.
The decline in consumer confidence comes as the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May jobs report came in under expectations, with just 75,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy. The report followed data from payroll processor ADP that shows private employers added 27,000 private-sector jobs during May, the lowest number since 2010.
The three-day rolling average started out at its peak, beginning at 54.8 points on May 29 before dropping to a low of 49.3 on June 2. The moving average trended upward and before closing out the reading period at 52.6 on June 11, 2.2 points below its peak.
The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, June 25, 2019.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.ts powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.