Consumer confidence continued to decline over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index dropped by a total of 1.2 points, declining from a reading of 53.1 points on April 3rd to 51.9 points on April 17th. This is the lowest level the ESI has hit since December 12th, 2017 and is 3.7 points off of its 2018 high from early February.
Four of the ESI’s five indicators fell during the two-week reading period. Confidence in the broader economy hit its lowest level in 2018, declining by 3.1 points, from 50.7 to 47.6. Consumer confidence in personal finances dropped by 0.8 points, from 65.4 to 64.6. Consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase declined from 53.3 to 51.5, a 1.8 point drop, while economic sentiment towards the U.S. housing market dropped slightly from 49.3 points to 49.0.
Confidence in the U.S. labor market rose slightly, moving up 0.1 points to a reading of 46.8.
Despite a general downward trajectory in overall movement, the ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period at 52.2 points, 0.8 points off the high-point of 53.0 points on April 7th. The moving average reached its lowest point of 50.5 points on April 15th, before bouncing back 1.7 points to end the reading period.
The beginning of the tumultuous reading period saw geopolitical tensions rise as President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting Chinese officials to respond with retaliatory tariffs.
The next release of the ESI will be May 1, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.