Consumer Confidence Continues Trend Of Minor Movements, Declines Just 0.1 Points

Consumer confidence declined 0.1 points to 50.8 during the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This slight decline continues the ESI’s summer trend of minor movements as the index never moved more than 1.0 point between readings from May to September.

The index began the summer with a reading of 50.8 on May 30 and maintained an average of 51.2 through the current reading. Including this week’s reading, the ESI’s summer average was slightly below the ESI’s 2017 average of 51.4. Over the course of the summer, consumer confidence fell to a low of 50.4 on June 27 and peaked at 52.1 on August 8.

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Consumer confidence in the labor market and in personal finances were the sole indicators to improve, increasing 1.4 points to 45.3 and 1.3 points to 66.9, respectively. The 1.4 point jump in economic sentiment toward the labor market pushed the indicator a full point above its 2017 average of 44.3.

Consumer confidence in the housing market, making a major purchase, and the broader US economy all declined. Confidence in the housing market fell the most, dropping 1.4 points to 48.1. Economic sentiment toward making a major purchase and toward the broader US economy fell by 1.0 point to 48.0 and 0.9 points to 45.6, respectively.This is the fourth straight reading where confidence in the broader U.S. economy has declined.

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During the last two weeks, the ESI’s three-day moving average steadily increased, rising 4.0 points from 47.7 on Wednesday, September 6, the first day of the reading, to end at 51.7 on Tuesday, September 19, the final day of the reading. During the two-week reading period, the moving average reached its peak of 52.4 on two occasions: Saturday, September 16 and Monday, September 19. The moving average started the reading at its trough of 47.7 on Wednesday, September 6.

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The next release of the ESI will be October 3, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.