Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly, But Remains Above 2014 Average
Consumer confidence fell 0.9 points to 46.6 over the past two weeks, according to the latest data from the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While slightly down from two weeks ago, the ESI remains above its 2014 average and is at a similar level from one year ago. Notably, consumer confidence has remained at or above 46.0 since March 25th, supported by rising confidence in making a major purchase, which once again hit a 27-week high over the past two weeks.
The three-day rolling average was highly volatile during the two-week period. The three-day rolling average peaked at 49.5 on June 13th. Confidence then fell to 44.8 before ticking up to 46.1 at the end of the period.
While the overall index has remained stable in recent months, the five individual components have been more volatile. Increasing more than five full points in just six weeks, confidence in making a major purchase is once again at a 27-week high with a reading of 49.0. At the same time, over the past two weeks, confidence in the national economy dropped 2.6 points to 38.7, a level not seen since December, and confidence in personal finances dropped to 53.5, a four-month low.
Below are all five questions included in the index:
- Over the next six months, do you expect your personal financial situation to get better, stay the same, or get worse?
- Given the current state of your local market, is now a good or bad time to purchase a new home?
- Given the current state of the economy, is now a good time or a bad time to make a major purchase like a new car or home improvements?
- Looking ahead six months, do you think the U.S. economy will get better, stay the same, or get worse?
- Over the next six months, do you think it will become easier or more difficult to find a new job?
The next release of the ESI will be Tuesday, June 30th.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.