Following a short bump in economic sentiment, consumer confidence declined by 0.5 points over the past two weeks to reach 53.1 points, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While the ESI remains 2.5 points off 2018 highs, the index remains in line with 2017’s high-point of 53.2, a 0.1 point difference.
Four out of the ESI’s five indicators fell during the two-week reading period, led by labor market confidence which dropped 1.6 points from 48.3 to 46.7. Consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase also fell from 54.4 to 53.3, a decline of 1.1 points marking its lowest reading since March 6th. Confidence in the broader economy hit its second lowest level in 2018 of 50.7, while economic sentiment towards the U.S. housing market remained steady at a reading of 49.3.
Consumer confidence in personal finances was the only indicator to rise, recovering for the first time in three reading periods. Confidence in personal finances rose from 64.5 to 65.4, an increase of 0.9 points.
The ESI’s three-day rolling was highly volatile over the course of two weeks. After falling from March 22nd to March 25th, economic sentiment briefly recovered and hit its highest point of 54.5 on the last day of March. However, over the Easter and Passover holidays, the rolling average fell steadily, dropping back down to 52.0 points.
Over the course of the reading period, the stock market also experienced notable declines with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by more than four percent from March 21st to April 2nd.
The next release of the ESI will be April 17, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.