Economic sentiment among consumers has descended to its lowest level in more than a year and a half, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Over the last two weeks, the ESI dropped 1.2 points, from 47.1 to 45.9, bringing the index down to its lowest point since the September 9, 2014 reading of 45.7. The decline erased all gains made during the previous reading on May 31, 2016, and lowers the 2016 ESI average to 47.1.
Consumer confidence fell in four of the ESI’s five indicators, with confidence in personal finances experiencing the only increase during the reading. Confidence in making a major purchase had the sharpest drop, falling 2.2 points to 46.5. Economic sentiment regarding the labor market and the broader U.S. economy were close behind, falling 2.1 and 1.9 points to 34.1 and 36.5, respectively. Confidence in the housing market decreased only slightly from 53.4 to 53.2. Sentiment regarding personal finances rose 0.3 points to 59.3 and, once again, retained its position as the indicator in which consumers are most confident. Per usual, consumers remained least confident in the labor market.
The ESI’s three-day rolling average achieved its peak on June 1, the first day of the reading, before trending downward through June 8, when it reached its trough of 44.4. Since June 8, the moving average hovered in the 45.0-46.0 range before jumping to 46.3 on June 14, the last day of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be June 28.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.