Consumer Confidence Improves Despite Pessimism Toward The Broader U.S. Economy

After holding steady during the latter half of May, consumer confidence increased 0.6 points to 51.3 points during the first two weeks of June, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). As the halfway point of 2017 nears, consumer confidence hovers just below the index’s 2017 average of 51.4. Despite recent readings’ more modest confidence, consumers continue to feel more confident in 2017 than 2016, as the ESI’s 2017 average is nearly 4.0 points higher than its 2016 average of 47.5.

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A 2.8 point improvement in economic sentiment toward the labor market, bringing the indicator from 41.8 to 44.6, helped drive the overall index’s increase during the past two weeks. Consumer confidence in personal finances and in making a major purchase also increased, rising 1.3 points to 65.1 and 1.2 points to 51.5, respectively, and contributing to the ESI’s overall rise. In sharp contrast to an otherwise optimistic reading, consumer confidence in the housing market and the broader U.S. economy both dropped. Confidence in the housing market fell 1.4 points to 49.1, its lowest point since March 2017, and confidence in the broader U.S. economy fell 1.3 points to 45.9.

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Despite an increase in the overall index, the ESI’s three-day moving average dropped 0.3 points during the course of the two-week reading period. The moving average started the reading at 51.8 before falling to its trough of 48.5 on Monday, June 5th. During the work week, the moving average jumped 4.5 points in five days to reach its peak of 53.0 on Saturday, June 10th. The mid-reading increase did not hold, however, as the moving average fell 1.5 points in the final four days to settle at 51.5 on Tuesday, June 13.

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The next release of the ESI will be June 27, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.