Consumer confidence increased for the second consecutive reading, rising 0.9 points from 51.8 to 52.7, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). With this increase, consumer confidence reached its highest level since March 21, 2017, when confidence peaked at 53.0. Additionally, the ESI has changed its recent pattern of minimal movements, moving by more than 0.5 points for the second consecutive reading and for the second time since April 2017.
Recent improvements in consumer confidence have also helped the ESI’s 2017 average reach 51.4, nearly 4.0 points above the 2016 average of 47.5.
Major improvements in consumers’ confidence in the housing market and making a major purchased drove the overall index’s 0.9 point increase. Confidence in the housing market jumped 3.1 points to 51.7, the indicator’s highest reading since September 2016. Confidence in making a major purchase increased nearly as much, rising 2.9 points to 53.4, the indicator’s highest level since January 13, 2015 when it reached 54.4.
Economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy remained the most steady of the five ESI indicators, rising just 0.3 points to 48.1. Despite the minimal change, economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy is at its highest point since May 2, 2017, when the indicator reached 48.1.
Declining confidence in two of the five ESI indicators, the labor market and personal finances, tempered some of the positive effects of the other indicators’ increases. Consumers’ confidence in personal finances fell 1.1 points to 65.4, and confidence in the labor market decreased 0.4 points to 45.2.
The ESI’s three-day moving average ended 0.4 points lower than where it began during the two-week reading period, falling from 52.5 on the first day of the reading on Wednesday, October 18, to 52.1 on the final day of the reading on Tuesday, October 31. The moving averaged peaked at 54.9 on Wednesday, October 25. During the second half of the reading, the moving average fell 4.6 points in four days to its trough of 50.3 on Sunday, October 29. In the final two days, the moving average rebounded nearly 2.0 points to end the reading period at 52.1.
The next release of the ESI will be November 14, 2017.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.