For the third-consecutive reading, consumer confidence reached a record high, rising 1.2 points to 55.6, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Economic sentiment has reached new heights with every reading in 2018, as the overall ESI has increased a total of 2.5 points, from 53.1 on December 26, 2017, the last reading for 2017, to 55.6 on Tuesday, February 6, 2018.
In addition to record-setting confidence in the overall ESI, two of the five ESI indicators–confidence in the broader U.S. economy and in personal finances–also achieved record levels during the most recent reading.
Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period, with consumer confidence in the housing market improving the most, rising 3.9 points to 50.7. With this increase, the indicator reached its highest level since November 2017.
In addition to rising consumer confidence in the housing market, confidence in the broader U.S. economy and in personal finances also improved. Economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy increased 1.6 points to 55.4, a record high for the indicator. Sentiment toward personal finances also increased, rising 0.8 points to 68.9, a record high for this indicator as well. While these indicators experienced record-breaking movement, confidence in making a major purchase improved only slightly, rising 0.2 points to 53.9.
Confidence in the labor market was the sole indicator to fall, declining 0.6 points to 48.9.
Despite significant stock market volatility over the last few days, the ESI’s three-day moving average ended the period only 0.9 points lower than where it started. After beginning the reading at 54.8 on Wednesday, January 24, the moving average peaked at 58.5 on Tuesday, January 30.
Last Friday as the Dow fell 666 points, the three-day moving average dropped from 57.8 on Thursday, February 1 to 55.3 on Friday, February 2. In the days following this decline, the moving average fell another 1.4 points to end the reading at 53.9 on Tuesday, February 6. The moving average reached its lowest point on the last day of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be February 20, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.