A 0.8 point decline in overall consumer confidence during the past two weeks was fueled by a significant decline in confidence in the labor market and in personal finances, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Consumer confidence in personal finances fell 2.5 points to 62.6, its lowest level since the beginning of April, when the indicator dropped to 62.4. Confidence in the labor market dropped 1.7 points to 42.9, erasing a substantial portion of its gains from the previous reading when it had risen 2.8 points to 44.6. Additionally, consumers remained pessimistic toward the broader U.S. economy as this indicator dipped 0.2 points to 45.7 after falling 1.3 points during the previous reading. Economic sentiment toward making a major purchase also declined, falling 0.2 points to 51.3. Consumer confidence in the housing market was the sole ESI indicator to improve, rising 0.7 points to 49.8.
The 0.8 point decline in overall economic sentiment brought the index down to 50.5. This is the ESI’s second lowest reading for 2017. Overall, confidence is below its 2017 average of 51.3. After experiencing relatively high volatility during the first quarter of 2017, consumer confidence seems to have steadied. Since the end of March, consumer confidence has remained within a 0.9 margin, dropping no lower than 50.5 and rising no higher than 51.4.
The ESI’s three-day moving average ended the two-week reading period slightly below its starting point of 50.8, falling 0.5 points to end the reading period at 50.3 The moving average dropped to its trough of 50.0 on Monday, June 19 and reached its peak of 52.0 on Thursday, June 22. The moving average saw its largest single day change from Wednesday, June 21 to Thursday, June 22, when it jumped 1.5 points from 50.5 to reach its peak of 52.0.
The next release of the ESI will be July 11, 2017.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.