Consumer Confidence In The National Economy Spikes
For the second week in a row, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index surged upward due to a 4.3 point rise in confidence in the national economy. In the last two weeks of October, consumer confidence surged up nearly two points to 48.3, and over the past two weeks it continued to increase by nearly a point to 49.2. At 49.2, consumer confidence is more than seven points above where it was this time last year and appears to have strong momentum going into the closely-watched holiday shopping season. Previously in the year, the index had been fairly steady, holding around 46 since March.
The three day moving average revealed a prolonged increase in consumer confidence. The Index hovered around 50 points for about a week then jumped to 50.9 before returning down to 49.2 at the end of the period.
Four of the five components of the ESI held stable, but consumer confidence in the U.S. economy spiked over the past two weeks. Confidence in the U.S. economy jumped 4.3 points to 47.0, one of the biggest spikes in recent months for any of the components in the Index. Notably, it is now more than four points above its highest point in the past year. When looking at the year in review, confidence in the national economy rose sharply in the spring, leveled off over the summer, and has now picked up steam again.
The next release of the ESI will be December 2.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.