Consumer Confidence Reaches 34-Month High

Consumer confidence continued to improve for the fourth consecutive reading, rising 0.5 points to 53.2, a 34-month high, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This reading is also the second-highest reading in the history of the ESI, just 0.1 points lower than the record of 53.3 set on January 13, 2015. The current reading’s increase continues a run that has seen the ESI jump 2.5 points since October 3, 2017. Recent improvements in sentiment have bumped the ESI’s 2017 average to 51.5, now four full points higher than the 2016 average of 47.5.

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Improving consumer confidence in three of the ESI’s five indicators drove the overall index’s 0.6 point increase. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy improved the most, rising 2.1 points to 50.4, the indicator’s highest level since March 21, 2017, when it reached 51.9. Confidence in the labor market and in personal finances also increased, climbing by 1.1 points to 46.3 and 1.0 point to 66.5, respectively. The 1.1 point increase also pushed confidence in the labor market to its highest level since March 21, 2017, when the indicator reached 46.6.

Consumer confidence in making a major purchase fell from its 2017 high of 53.4, declining 1.7 points to 51.7. Despite the indicator’s drop, confidence remains at a higher level than the indicator’s 2017 average of 50.2. Sentiment toward the housing market also fell, decreasing 0.4 points to 51.3.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average concluded the two-week reading period at 53.6, 1.3 points higher than where it began. The moving average fell to its trough of 51.7 on Sunday, November 5. Over the next eight days, the rolling average increased 3.0 points to reach its peak of 54.7 on Monday, November 13, before settling at 53.6 on the final day of the reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be November 28, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.