Economic sentiment among consumers jumped again over the past two weeks to a level not seen since January 2015, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Consumer confidence rose 2.9 points, up from 48.4 to 51.3, after a 1.5 point increase during the previous reading, for a total increase of 4.4 points during the month of November. The most recent jump was primarily driven by increased confidence in the labor market and brings the ESI’s 2016 average to 47.2.
All five of the ESI’s indicators increased during the reading, helping to spur the 2.9 point overall increase in the index. Among the ESI’s five indicators, consumer confidence in the labor market experienced the largest increase, improving by 5.0 points to 44.5. Confidence in the broader US economy continued its rapid ascent, rising 3.9 points to 52.3, ranking it behind only consumer confidence in personal finances, which increased 0.1 points to 61.9. Sentiment regarding making a major purchase and the housing market also jumped, improving by 3.6 and 1.5 points, respectively, to 47.4 and 50.1.
Building off momentum toward the end of the November 15 reading, the ESI’s three-day rolling average increased initially to 50.8 on Thursday, November 17, before declining during the middle of the reading to its trough of 49.1 on Tuesday, November 22. The moving average achieved its peak of 53.0 on Thanksgiving before declining slightly to finish at 52.2 on Tuesday, November 29, the final day of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be December 13.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.