Consumers Feeling More Confident As Congress Adjourns For Recess

Consumer confidence improved 0.4 points to 52.0 during the past two weeks to reach its highest point since March 2017, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). Of note, consumer confidence in making a major purchase hit a 12-month high after a 1.6 point increase. Consumer confidence has slowly improved throughout the summer, increasing 1.4 points over the course of four consecutive readings of increases. With these improvements, the ESI is now 0.6 points above its 2017 average of 51.4.

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Improving consumer confidence in making a major purchase, the broader U.S. economy, and the housing market drove the index’s increase. As stated above, confidence in making a major purchase increased 1.6 points to reach 52.4, a 12-month high for the indicator. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy increased 1.0 points to 47.9, its highest point since the beginning of May 2017 but still below the indicator’s 2017 average of 48.6. Economic sentiment toward the housing market also improved, rising 0.8 points to 50.9.

Economic sentiment toward the labor market remained constant at 44.3. Consumer confidence in personal finances was the sole indicator to decline, falling 1.2 points to 64.9.

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During the two-week period, the ESI three-day moving average increased 1.6 points to reach its peak of 53.2 on the last day of the reading period. The moving average started the two-week period at 51.7 and fell to its trough of 51.3 on two occasions: Thursday, July 27 and Monday, August 6. The moving average then jumped 1.9 points in just two days to reach its peak of 52.7 on the final day of the reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be August 22, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.