Despite A Disappointing Job Month, Labor Market Confidence Jumps Almost 3 Points To A 5-Month High
While August payrolls disappointed — coming in at only 142,000 compared to expectations of 225,000 — consumer confidence in the labor market jumped to a five-month high of 36.9 over the last two weeks. However, consumer confidence dipped slightly overall from 46.3 to 45.7, according to the latest data from the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). While roughly four points above its level from this time last year, the ESI has been fairly stable since March and continues to hover around 46.
Aside from a slight dip in the early part of the month, the three-day moving average was fairly steady over the last two weeks.
The five components of the ESI reflect the overall stability of the index. The most movement across the five components was a decline in consumer confidence in the U.S. economy from 39.7 to 37.8. Consumer confidence in personal finances and purchasing a new home also decreased slightly, while confidence in making major purchases remained relatively stable at 45.8. The only component to increase over the past two weeks was confidence in the labor market, from 35.3 to 36.9. On the heels of a weaker than expected August jobs report, this rise in consumer confidence echoes the sentiments that the August jobs number was a statistical blip in an otherwise rebounding labor market.
The next release of the ESI will be September 23.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.