Economic Sentiment Flat As Summer Begins

As summer kicked off with the passage of Memorial Day, consumer confidence remained steady, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The ESI came in once again at 50.7 over the past two weeks, after falling 0.4 points during the May 16 reading. While today’s reading sits below the ESI’s 2017 average of 51.4, the ESI remains higher than its 12-month average of 49.2.

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Despite a 1.3 point improvement in consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy that pushed the indicator to 47.2, confidence in the labor market plummeted 2.8 points to 41.8. This decline brings confidence in the labor market to its lowest point since November 2016.  Conversely, economic sentiment toward the housing market and making a major purchase both increased, rising 0.8 points to 50.5 and 0.7 points to 50.3, respectively. Since the 2016 election, consumers had been feeling more confident in making a major purchase and the broader U.S. economy compared with the housing market, but the 0.8 increase led to consumers feeling the second most confident in the housing market of the five indicators. Economic sentiment toward personal finances also improved, albeit slightly, rising 0.2 points to 63.8.

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Despite the steadiness of the overall index, the ESI’s three-day moving average increased 3.6 points between the first day of the reading on Wednesday, May 17 and the final day Tuesday, May 30. These dates also served as the rolling average’s trough and peak, respectively. Despite four straight days of decline during the previous reading, the three-day rolling average improved steadily during the current period to end at 51.8 on the final day, generating positive momentum heading into the ESI’s next reading.

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The next release of the ESI will be June 13, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.