Economic Sentiment Improves Slightly As Consumers Feel Increasingly Confident In The Labor Market

Consumer confidence increased slightly by 0.4 points to 51.6 during the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The rise in confidence continues the ESI’s recent trend of modest improvement, as the index has improved 1.1 points since the June 27 reading. Consumers continue to feel more confident in 2017 than in 2016, with the 2017 ESI average of 51.3 hovering nearly 4.0 points above its 2016 average. The increase in consumer confidence was largely driven by improved confidence in the U.S. labor market and in personal finances, as these indicators rose 1.6 points and 1.5 points to 44.3 and 66.1, respectively.

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Improving economic sentiment toward personal finances brought the indicator to its highest level since March 2017, when it also reached 66.1. The other three ESI indicators experienced modest declines as consumer sentiment toward both the broader U.S. economy and the housing market each dropped by 0.5 points, bringing the indicators to 46.9 and 49.8, respectively. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase also fell, decreasing 0.4 points to 50.8.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average dropped 1.3 points during the two-week reading period. After beginning the period at 52.1, the moving average jumped to its peak of 52.7 during the first week of the reading on Thursday, July 13. The moving average then declined 1.5 points to 51.2 on Monday, July 17, before jumping 1.4 points in one day to reach 52.6 on Tuesday, July 18, the reading’s halfway point. Through the rest of the reading, the moving average declined steadily, falling to its trough of 50.6 on Sunday, July 23. The moving average ended the reading period on a slightly higher note, as it improved 0.2 points to reach 50.8 on the last day.

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The next release of the ESI will be August 8, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.