Economic Sentiment Sees Largest Movement Since April, Improves 1.1 Points

Economic sentiment improved 1.1 points, rising from 50.7 to 51.8 during the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This increase marks the largest movement during the two-week reading since April 4, 2017 when the index fell 2.2 points. Recently, the ESI has remained fairly stable, and the 1.1 point movement marks the first reading since August 8, 2017 that the ESI has changed by greater than 0.5 points. Additionally, the increase ends the ESI’s streak of four consecutive declines.

The 1.1 point improvement helped push the ESI above its 2017 average of 51.3 for the first time since August 22, 2017. Improving economic sentiment toward three of the five ESI indicators drove the overall index’s largest increase since March 21, 2017.

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Three of the five ESI indicators improved during the reading, while the other two indicators held constant. Consumer confidence in the housing market improved the most, rising 2.8 points to 48.6, although confidence remains below the indicator’s 2017 average of 49.4. Consumer confidence in the labor market and in personal finances also climbed by more than a point, increasing 1.6 points to 45.6 and 1.2 points to 66.5, respectively.

Confidence in the broader U.S. economy and in making a major purchase did not change, holding constant at 47.9 and 50.6, respectively. Overall, the indicators’ movements once again show that consumers are more confident in the housing market than in the broader U.S. economy.

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During the two-week reading period, the ESI’s three-day moving average rose 0.4 points from its starting point of 50.9 on Wednesday, October 4, to 51.3 on Tuesday, October 17, the last day of the reading. After beginning the reading at 50.9, the moving average rose 3.1 points in two days to reach its peak of 54.0 on Friday, October 6. Following its peak, the three-day moving average dropped to its rough of 50.3 on Sunday, October 15, before climbing back to 51.7 on the final day.

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The next release of the ESI will be October 31, 2017.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.

Requests for the ESI Real-Time Beta

In early 2014, the HPS-CS Economic Sentiment Index will be made available in real-time to a select group of beta partners. Beta partners will receive access to a secure website with real-time results and analysis tools, email alerts when numbers shift, and private insights not made available on our public blog. You will also be able to view sentiment data among key sub-populations, such as high-income consumers, frequent retail shoppers, people most likely to buy or lease a new car, or hundreds of other groups.

To request an invitation, sign up here.